Expect Flower Prices to fall at least 27% by October
Appature expects flower prices in the Recreational market to fall at least 27% over the next 3 months, based on analysis of historical data from Michigans Cannabis Regulatory Agency
According to the data put out by the CRA, we’ve seen the average price stabilize somewhat the past few months, with prices hovering above and below $1,392 / lb. However, there has been a rapid increase in the state’s active plant count as outdoor farms come online.
Last year, Michigan saw a 27% price drop on the average price from the outdoor season (May – October). Appature took a look at the state’s potential plant capacity – the maximum number of plants that can be grown in the state based on active licenses – and saw the state operating at an average of 45% potential capacity during the “indoor” season (November – April), and moved to an average of 54% during outdoor season. This year, with the June report, the state is currently operating at 64% capacity.
Expect the bulk flower price to fall to at least 27% again. However, a proportional drop from the increase in plant capacity would put the drop at least at 32.5%. Using May’s average of $1,389 / lb as a baseline, this would put flower prices in a range of $937.58 – $1,013.97 by October 2023. The numbers put out by the CRA are the totals that include indoor and outdoor sales, so we can only average across both indoor and outdoor.
On the Medical side, total sales have steadily been falling across the board with a few minor exceptions. While there appears to have been some stabilization of prices, and even gains in some areas, total sales has fallen pretty steadily in almost all product categories.
For enforcement, June was a huge surge of reported infractions and enforcement actions. Looking at the past 9 months, a pattern emerges: A high number of enforcement actions, followed by 3 months with significantly fewer. June had the highest number of actions to date; expect the next surge of actions to be October 2023.
Below are all the graphs of the CRA data put out for both Medical and Recreational over the past 18 months. For sales graphs, the left axis and the blue line illustrates the total volume sold, and the right axis and the orange line represent price per unit.
CRA DATA FOR MEDICAL AND RECREATIONAL CANNABIS
SLIDESHOW – Expect Flower Prices to fall at least 27% by October by AppatureSLIDE BY SLIDE CRA DATA VIEW
Enforcement
Total Infractions
There were 104 total infractions reported in June 2023, a 136% increase from the previous month.
Infractions by Type
AFS non-compliance is the most common infraction with 26 instances in June 2023, followed by Surveillance / Security with 15 instances.
Recreational Market
REC Flower Sales
There were 83,661.47 lbs of flower sold for an average price of $1,428.34 / lb in June 2023
REC Shake / Trim sold
There were 19,960.06 lbs of shake / trim sold for an average price of $1,094.19 / lb in June 2023.
REC Concentrate Sold
There were 2,661.22 lbs of concentrate sold for an average price of $5,311.13 / lb in June 2023
REC Inhalable Compound Concentrate sold
There were 6,782.47 lbs of inhalable concentrate sold for an average price of $3,339.64 / lb in June 2023
REC Vapes sold
There were 7,615.13 lbs of vapes sold for an average price of $6,417.55 / lb in June 2023
REC Kief sold
There were 11.34 lbs of kief sold at an average price of $5,345.20 / lb in June 2023
REC Infused edibles sold
There were 282,581.84 lbs of infused edibles sold for an average price of $90.34 / lb in June 2023
REC Infused non-edible solids sold
There were 1,347.09 lbs of infused non-edible solid sold for an average price of $455.20 / lb in June 2023.
REC Infused Liquid
There were 740,080.59 fl oz of infused liquid sold for an average price of $1.16 / fl oz in June 2023.
REC Infused non-edible liquid sold
There were 16,980.20 fl oz of infused non-edible liquid sold for an average price of $5.73 / fl oz in June 2023.
REC Active Plants
In June 2023, there were a total of 1,871,388 active plants, an increase of 15% from the previous month.
REC Destroyed Plants
There were 55,174 vegetative plants and 8,377 flowering plants destroyed in June 2023. Please note – we used an average of the past 3 months for the number of immature plants destroyed, as an estimate since the number was not available in June’s CRA report.
REC Packages
There were 2,536,737 active packages in Michigan as of the end of June 2023, a 7% increase from the previous month.
REC Inventory
REC Flower at Growers (Test Passed)
There was 67,765.01 lbs of flower at growers in June 2023, a 19% decrease from the previous month.
REC Flower at Provisioning Centers
There was 93,454.71 lbs of flower at provisioning centers in June 2023, a 5% decrease from the previous month.
REC Flower at Processors
There was 221,458.89 lbs of flower at processors in June 2023, a 12% decrease from the previous month.
REC Fresh Frozen Flower at Processors
There was 201,882.73 lbs of fresh frozen flower at processors in June 2023, a 48% increase from the previous month.
REC Concentrate at Processors
There was 86,052.12 lbs of concentrate at processors in June 2023, a 13% increase from the previous month.
REC Infused Solids at Processors
There were 1,114,570.61 lbs of infused solids at processors in June 2023, an 8% increase from the previous month.
REC Infused Liquids at Processors
There were 2,842,587.21 fl oz of infused liquids at processors in June 2023, a 21% increase from the previous month.
Medical
MED Flower sold
There was 1,878.01 lbs of flower sold for an average price of $1,595.17 / lb in June 2023.
MED Shake / Trim Sold
There was 347.37 lbs of shake / trim sold for an average price of $1,073.40 / lb in June 2023.
MED Concentrate Sold
There was 65.3 lbs of concentrate sold for an average price of $5,341.23 / lb in June 2023.
MED Inhalable Compound Concentrate Sold
There was 103.3 lbs of inhalable compound concentrate sold for an average price of $5,375.54 / lb in June 2023.
MED Vapes Sold
There was 277.6 lbs of vapes sold for an average price of $5,728.46 / lb in June 2023
MED Kief Sold
There was 0.37 lbs of kief sold for an average price of $3,509.76 / lb in June 2023.
MED Infused Edibles Sold
There was 8,159.53 lbs of infused edibles sold for an average price of $85.36 / lb in June 2023.
MED Infused non-edible solid sold
There was 98.1 lbs of infused non-edible solid sold for an average price of $348.14 / lb in June 2023
MED Infused Liquid Sold
There was 10,182.44 fl oz of infused liquid sold for an average price of $4.73 / fl oz in June 2023.
MED Infused non-edible liquid sold
There was 52.92 fl oz of infused non-edible liquid sold for an average price of $16.10 / fl oz in June 2023.
MED Active Plants
There were 485,232 total active plants in June 2023, a 57% increase from the previous month.
MED Destroyed Plants
There were 12,014 vegetative plants and 480 flowering plants destroyed in June 2023. Please note – we used an average of the past 3 months for the number of immature plants destroyed, as an estimate since the number was not available in June’s CRA report.
MED Packages
There were 258,282 active packages in June 2023, a 6% decrease from the previous month.
MED Inventory
MED Flower at Growers (Test Passed)
There was 6517.41 lbs of flower on hand in June 2023, a 0.3% increase from the previous month.
MED Flower at Provisioning Centers
There was 10,300.45 lbs of flower at provisioning centers in June 2023, a 6% decrease from the previous month.
MED Flower at Processors
There was 49,584.7 lbs of flower on hand at processors in June 2023, a 14% decrease from the previous month.
MED Fresh Frozen Flower at Processors
There was 37,189.68 lbs of fresh frozen flower on hand at processors in June 2023, a 38% decrease from the previous month.
MED Concentrates at Processors
There was 9,506.66 lbs of concentrate at processors on hand in June 2023, a 3% increase from the previous month.
MED Infused Solids at Processors
There was 41,901.91 lbs of infused solids at processors on hand in June 2023, a 29% decrease from the previous month.
MED Infused Liquids at Processors
There was 40,210.88 fl oz of infused liquids at processors on hand in June 2023, a 5% decrease from the previous month.
